Émergence Économique en Afrique au Sud du Sahara : Comprendre la Politique monétaire des Banques centrales.


 

La politique monétaire des pays émergents  est conduite par leurs Banques  Centrales. Celles ci disposent de plusieurs instruments pour Controller leurs économies. Parmi tant d’autres, la manipulation du taux d’intérêt central. Selon la théorie, la banque centrale augmente son taux central quand elle veut réduire l’inflation. Quand l’économie est en état de surchauffe, la banque centrale peut contracter les taux d’intérêts. Cela aura pour conséquence de compresser la demande. Quelles sont les dernières décisions des différentes banques centrales.

la Banque Centrale du Ghana a relevé son taux directeur de 16 à 18%. Quelle sont les conséquences de cette pratique  pour l’économie ghanéenne.

ghana-interest-rate

La hausse des taux d’intérêts aura pour effet de réduire la pression de l’inflation qui actuellement est de 15%. Une chose intéressante cependant est le fait qu’une hausse du taux directeur, indirectement relève le taux d’échange par le biais de l’effet de parité. Selon les propos du Président de la Banque Centrale, la hausse est susciter arrêter la chute vertigineuse du taux d’échange du Cedi.

Comment va la Zambie?

zambia-interest-rate

Comme on peut le constater au mois de Mars 2014, la Banque centrale a augmenté aussi son taux directeur.

On dit quoi dans la zone Franc?

senegal-interest-rate

Dans la zone Franc, le seul pays classifié comme en voie d’émergence est le Sénégal. Ce pays est membre de la zone Franc CFA et donc offre un cas différent car sa politique monétaire est conduite par la BCEAO. Depuis Septembre 2013, le taux directeur de la banque est resté figé à 3.5. La politique monétaire « prudente » de la BCEAO s’accommode avec le faible niveau d’inflation.

Francis Konan

©MK GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONSULTING

 

 

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Naira: The devaluation is not an option


That phrase is an excerpt from the speech of the future president of the Central Bank of Nigeria. It opposes the devaluation of the Naira . According to the Governor the exchange rate of the Nigerian currency is correct. This leads us to our analysis of the week: Why a nation devalues ​​its currency ? As a good Ivorian, I experienced the devaluation of the CFA franc in January 1994 . I can testify how the country has suffered in the months that followed the devaluation. Prices suddenly experienced an outbreak. There were not enough cash in circulation. But let us return to the main question : Why a nation must devalue its currency ?

Theoretical foundation

a. A nation “officially” devalues ​​its currency relative to other currencies, when it ” voluntarily” decrease the value of its currency compared to other currencies.

b . Market exchange rates can also reduce the value of a currency against another, when the demand for this currency is experiencing a decline.

Raison to devalue ?

When the exchange rate of a currency drops in value,  exports ( x ) become cheaper while imports ( m ) become expensive. If we define the trade balance Nx = x – m Then devaluation will normally increase the value of exports relative to imports. From what has been said : 1 . So a nation devalues ​​its currency in order to stop a chronic deficit in its trade balance (achieve  balance surplus) . If we redefine x as inflow of currency and m  as outputs of currency, then

Nx = Influx of foreign currency – Output of foreign currency exchange. 2 . If we follow the same approach , a devaluation will increase the stock of forex  compared to an outflow of currency . 3 . In the short term , a devaluation , increases the trade balance and also increases economic growth. According  to cases 1 and 2, a nation benefits from the devaluation when its economy is heavily exporting raw materials. When, therefore , the country is strongly turned to imports,  a devaluation will have no effect on the trade balance. Instead, it will widen the trade deficit and thus increase the outflow of foreign exchange . In the case of Nigeria , the future governor of the Central Bank states  that the devaluation of the Naira will have a devastating effect on the economy because Nigeria is a nation that is heavily importing. He is half right : Nigeria with its oil industry is an export nation. He currently experiencing a surplus in the trade balance, however,  when the price of oil is experiencing a decline , according to our analysis , a devaluation will widen the trade deficit and increase outflow of forex exchange.

When the political decision influences the Naira

The Naira began to be distressed when President Goodluck Jonathan  sacked the former governor of the Central Bank. The later found a  Billion hole in oil revenues . This leads us to the point b . Devaluation of a currency can be caused by the foreign exchange market ( speculative attacks). When speculators (domestic / foreign ) begin to express doubts about the practice of economic policy of a nation  and try to get rid of the local currency. In the case of Nigeria ,  the Independence of the Central Bank is in doubt. As a result, huge amounts of national currency will be exchanged against other currencies. In the long term , the amount of domestic currency in circulation will increase. At this level the rising costs of imported products can cause inflation The table below shows the event of a devaluation in Africa. Before devaluation , 1 USD was trading at 155 Naira . After a “potential” devaluation 1 USD is trading at 170 Naira . In other words to gain 1USD , it costs more Naira . The Naira is devalued. This is the same principle for Kwasha  of Malawi , the former French Franc .  The Central Bank may limit speculation against the domestic currency by making it difficult to get it ( higher interest rates).

Emerging countries facing massive cash outflow : Reality against the Theory !


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Emerging countries facing massive cash outflow : Reality against the Theory !

Emerging countries are experiencing  some turbulences in  theirs capital transfers ! Once a popular destination for foreign direct investment , these countries are becoming places to avoid. Why did they get into that mess? To understand the cause of the excessive outflow of capital from emerging countries, it is necessary to analyze the factors that determine the massive inflow of capital in these countries!

Capital flows depend on the theory of three factors

1. The difference in economic growth : economic growth is the primary factor to  open investors and speculators eyes! In almost 100% of cases, all countries that have experienced massive capital inflows first attracted attention with their impressive economic growth rates . China, India and Mozambique are examples among many others .
2. The difference between domestic interest rates and the overall interest rate ( often dictated by the interest rate of the U.S. central bank -FED ) . When rates the Fed are very low, speculators prefer to allocate their funds to regions or rates are high.
The appetite for financial risk. It is directly linked to the differential in interest rates .
image. There is an inverse relationship between market volatility index (VIX) and capital inflows to emerging countries . The more financial markets in advanced economies are unstable, the more emerging countries will experience a strong capital inflows.

3. Capital control policy. A control of capital inflow capital tends to discourage speculators.
From these four points, the outflow of capital would take place due to:

a. Weak economic growth in emerging countries ! is it proven?
b. A reduction in the anticipated differential in interest rates ( Dti *) . The Fed plans to raise interest rates (fed (i ) *) , this will reduce the differential in interest rates .
Dti * = em (i ) -fed (i ) * system em( i) = interest rate in emerging countries .

A reduction in the differential will be followed by an outflow of capital from emerging countries. Is it proven?

Control sources of rigidity capital transfers capital is also the cause of the excessive outflow ! Is it proven?